Buying The Real Thing
From Forbes.com:
Stock Of The Week
Buying The Real Thing
John Dobosz 07.02.08, 5:20 PM ET
It’s an iconic American brand that has been a leader in creating a consumer culture and developing overseas markets for most of its existence, making it in many ways a sugary paragon of the corporate structure in the U.S. that took root in the decades following the Civil War and blossomed throughout the 20th century.
In 1886 in Atlanta, Confederate veteran and druggist John S. Pemberton created a “delicious, exhilarating, refreshing and invigorating” drink with “the valuable tonic and nerve stimulant properties of the coca plant and cola nuts.” A year later, Atlanta businessman Asa Candler made what might be considered a shrewd purchase, buying the formula from Pemberton and other shareholders for $2,300.
It grew steadily around the globe through two world wars, and growth went into overdrive as the world became a global village. All of this from what started out as just another syrup and patent medicine with reputed restorative powers derived from the same leaves that yield cocaine.
Coca-Cola went on, of course, to enrich numerous Candlers and Woodruffs, not to mention a guy named Buffett, who bought a bunch of its depressed shares in the wake of the Crash of 1987.
Today, Coca-Cola is a company worth more than $120 billion, with almost $7.5 billion in annual sales. Although your returns may be a bit less than Candler’s, now is looking like a great time to put some Coke into your portfolio.
But like many American brands and businesses that once seemed globally dominant and unassailable, Coca-Cola has struggled recently, finding the spectacular sales and profit growth of the last two decades hard to duplicate today. But it’s not doing a horrible job, last year turning in 17.7% profit growth on sales growth of 19.7%.
At around $51.50, shares are down about 21.5% from their high of $65.59 on Jan. 10, and trade at prices about 3.5% lower than they did 12 months ago. Coca-Cola pays an annual dividend of $1.52 per share, for a yield of 2.9%.
Value investors are starting to like the look of Coke as a good investment, especially after the recent market sell-off and the ascension of Muhtar Kent to the post of chief executive officer this week.
“In our opinion, Coke has been attractive on a cash flow and revenue basis for some time now, but overall market movement has dragged it down,” says Ned Douthat, editor of the Enterprising Investor’s Guide and vice president of Atlanta-based Ockham Research.
Douthat likes to look at stocks the way Benjamin Graham did, comparing the price to what it’s worth and buying if the price is lower with a sufficient “margin of safety.” He doesn’t use intrinsic value, though, preferring to focus on multiples of sales and free cash flow and where they rank compared with historical ranges.
Coke currently sells for 3.93 times sales and 14.25 times free cash flow. Its price-sales ratio ranged between 3.65 and 5.16 last year, and price-cash flow swung between 14.8 and 20.9, making Coke look exceptionally cheap on a cash-flow basis. Douthat figures that Coke is undervalued by at least 17% and could gain even more in price when the market turns.
“While the margin of safety at 17% is not the most attractive of stocks we follow by any means, we see significant appreciation potential for KO and have a price target of about $70 for one to two years from now,” Douthat says.
He looks for international sales to continue to drive overall revenue higher and to reinvigorate profits. “Coke has diversified product lines that include water, hydration, soda, even coffee, and as of last quarter about half of their revenue came from international sales,” he says. “The stock may get a nice boost from the Beijing Olympics, since Coke has been and continues to be a major sponsor of the games and should sell a lot of drinks to hot tourists.”
Douthat’s father, Marsh Douthat, the founder of Ockham Research, passed away last October after a battle with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. In January 2005, Marsh Douthat appeared in an article on Forbes.com recommending Coke when it was around $37, adjusted for dividends. (See “Ben Graham Special: Merck With A Coke Chaser.”)
It was a good call. Coke went on to gain 75% over the next three years.
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Ockham Research Staff @ August 7, 2008
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